Each week our friends over at Total Football Analysis Magazine help provide us with some tactical understanding of the big tactical talking points of the week. This week, Lead Analyst Lee Scott looks at the Mesut Ozil tactical conundrum facing Unai Emery and Arsenal.
Squad planning within football is an inexact science. You can plan down to the last detail to ensure that you are strong in each key position and that there is cover throughout the squad but a change in coach can throw all of that into chaos.
This appears to be the case this season at Arsenal. Last year we saw Mesut Ozil sign a new contract at the club. On the face of it the move made sense; Ozil, at his best, is capable of moments of individual magic and unlocking even the tightest defences with his ability to play quickly in tight areas. He has been responsible for assist after assist throughout his career.
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However, that all changed when it was announced that long term head coach Arsene Wenger would be stepping down. He was replaced in the summer by Unai Emery. The Spaniard had previously coached at PSG in France and Sevilla in Spain, amongst others.
This change at the top has seen Arsenal adopt a new game model with two or three tactical structures incorporated within that. These structures do not necessarily preclude Ozil as a starting player – he could still fit into certain positions – but we have seen Ozil left out of the Arsenal squad in recent weeks. It seems likely that Emery has learned an important lesson from his time at PSG, where the likes of Neymar and Dani Alves disrupted the dressing room without consequence.
The only way that we can approach the question surrounding Ozil’s lack of selection is to look at the tactical structures in isolation.
The 4-2-3-1
One of the tactical structures that we have seen from Arsenal so far this season is a 4-2-3-1 system. This has been used when Emery has wanted to match up against another team’s structure whilst keeping the strength of the double pivot at the centre of the midfield. With the likes of Lucas Torreira, Granit Xhaka and Matteo Guendouzi all capable of playing as the controlling midfielders who hold the bottom of the structure, this freed up space in the No.10 slot for a genuine attacking midfielder.
In the early matches of the season, there was a greater willingness to utilise Ozil in this position. The majority of his minutes at this point in the season came in the opening months as Emery looked to assess the strengths and weaknesses of his squad.
So far this season the German has only played 988 minutes with three goals and one assist in the English top flight. These numbers alone show that his impact in the final third for Arsenal is hugely diminished this season when compared to previous years.
In recent weeks when Emery has opted for the 4-2-3-1 structure, we have seen alternatives preferred to Ozil with the likes of Alex Iwobi, Henrik Mkhitaryan and even Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang used at the tip of midfield.
Three at the back
As well as the 4-2-3-1 structure we have also seen Emery use a 3-4-3 in two distinct variants as a part of his attacking game model.
3-4-2-1 is one of the structures used by Emery when he starts with three at the back. There is still a lone striker, usually Alexandre Lacazette or Aubameyang, with two attacking midfielders who are more centrally orientated.
This would ordinarily be an opportunity for Arsenal to play Ozil as a traditional playmaker with a second attacking midfielder who carries a more vertical threat alongside him. Instead, we have seen Emery utilise a number of players in this role, with Ozil gaining limited playing time.
It has become clear in recent weeks that Emery values a player profile that offers a skillset varying dramatically from that possessed by Ozil. His expectation that players engage in the defensive phase as well as the attacking phase leaves no space for players to drift and shirk their responsibilities – this is a criticism that had been levelled at Ozil throughout his career.
The final variant in terms of the tactical structure that we have seen so far this season for Arsenal under Emery is similar to the 3-4-2-1 but with the attacking midfielders orientated in the wide areas.
Once again this structure alone limits the playing time that might be allocated to Ozil.
Under Wenger, there were occasions when Ozil would be played in wide areas, although his usefulness diminishes given the lack of space he can naturally find out there.
Under Emery, there is a greater emphasis put on the wide players in this structure by providing movement both vertically, to stretch the defensive line of the opposition, and centrally to support balls played forward to the highest line.
When we see Ozil play wide he still displays a clear preference for occupying pockets of space in central areas instead of using movement to overload the opposition.
When Emery uses this structure there has been a clear preference for the likes of Aubameyang and Iwobi in the wide areas, where their combination of technical and physical attributes sees them threaten the opposition much more.
Conclusion
There is little doubt that Ozil is one of the most creative attacking players of his generation. Unfortunately, he is also a player who needs a very specific structure around him in order to maximise his effectiveness.
When playing with confidence and with a coach and team that believes in him, Ozil is the kind of player who can make the difference between winning and losing. When that confidence and belief is not there though, he can become a millstone around the neck of any coach.
For a club to operate effectively they have to maximise the output they receive from the money tied up in playing staff contracts. Arsenal simply cannot allow a player who they have made such a significant investment in to sit on the bench with no playing time.
Something has to give: will that see the club and Emery back down or Ozil make that long-awaited move away from the Emirates?
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