The National League playoff race is far from decided, as several teams are still battling for the final wild-card spot, and while the Cubs, Padres, and Dodgers have already clinched, they’re still jockeying for position.
As of Thursday afternoon, only five teams have been mathematically eliminated, while five have secured playoff spots. The final weekend of the season could get wild.
The top of the NL has felt settled for months, with the Phillies and Brewers leading the way and the Dodgers limping behind, but still owning the sport’s best roster. All eight teams still in contention are capable of winning the World Series, but each has at least one serious weakness that could end its run prematurely. It’s worth noting, the NL race has changed considerably since the trade deadline, with some teams charging while others have fallen off.
What follows is a look at every National League contender’s biggest weakness—and how it could sink them once the playoffs get underway.
Milwaukee Brewers: Injuries
Suddenly, baseball’s best team looks mighty vulnerable. Milwaukee breezed through this season as an unlikely juggernaut. After a blistering August in which they went 21–9, the Brewers have fallen off significantly in September, going 11–10. The injury bug has struck.
Starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and José Quintana are both on the IL, taking out two of the team’s top starting pitchers. Closer Trevor Megill is also out with an elbow injury, though he may be close to returning. Meanwhile, deadline acquisition Shelby Miller is out for the year, and reliever DL Hall remains out.
Milwaukee has used a complete team approach to winning this season, getting contributions from up and down the roster. The team’s pitching is beginning to look a bit thin entering the season’s final weekend, but if a few guys can get healthy, those fears would be allayed.
Like the Brewers, the Phillies have been excellent for most of the season. Then things began to get shaky. Staff ace Zack Wheeler is out for the season due to thoracic outlet syndrome and Aaron Nola is struggling since returning from a sprained ankle and a stress fracture in his ribs.
Philadelphia’s rotation doesn’t look as daunting as it once did.
The typically reliable Nola is 4–10 with a 6.46 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and has pitched only 86 1/3 innings over 16 starts this season. If that wasn’t enough, Ranger Suárez has surrendered nine runs in his last 10 innings pitched. The upside is that Walker Buehler has only allowed one run on seven hits in 8 2/3 innings over two starts with the team, but given how poorly he pitched for the Red Sox this season, can he really be counted on?
The Phillies are one of the most well-constructed teams heading into the postseason. If their rotation can get it together, they should be among the favorites to win the World Series. If it doesn’t, it could mean an early exit.
Los Angeles Dodgers: A Leaky Bullpen
The Dodgers have struggled out of the bullpen all season. While the starting rotation is finally healthy and mostly dominating, the team’s relievers continue to disappoint.
Since the trade deadline, L.A.’s bullpen has a collective ERA of 4.61. Tanner Scott, whose four-year, $72 million contract may have done more to push MLB toward a salary cap than any deal in the sport’s history, has been horrendous since signing. On the season, Scott is 1–4 with a 4.82 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP and 22 saves, while leading MLB in blown saves (10). Since returning from an elbow injury on Aug. 24, the lefty is 0–2, with an 7.84 ERA and three blown saves in six chances.
The rest of the team’s bullpen has been nearly as disappointing. As a group, Dodgers relievers have blown 27 saves. Plus, Kirby Yates, Brock Stewart and Michael Kopech are all on the IL at the moment. L.A.’s bullpen was pivotal in the team’s run to the World Series in 2025 and looks like a major weakness this year.
The Cubs will have clinched a spot in the postseason, but look nothing like the team that got them there. Chicago had one of MLB’s best offenses for most of the 2025 season, but there has been a significant power outage in the lineup for a few months now.
On July 31, the Cubs’ offense led MLB in fWAR (23.8), was second in wRC+ (115), second in slugging (.444) and third in home runs (158). That has swung dramatically in the other direction. Since the deadline, Chicago’s offense is 16th in fWAR (5.8), 19th in wRC+ (95), 23rd in slugging (.386) and 21st in home runs (53).
While Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ have been solid since the end of July, Pete Crow-Armstrong has collapsed, posting a wRC+ of 30 since then, down from 137 before the deadline. Meanwhile, Carson Kelly (68 wRC+) and Seiya Suzuki (89) have similarly come back down to earth the past two months. Kyle Tucker missing a huge chunk of that time has certainly impacted the lineup, but the issues have been widespread.
San Diego Padres: Starting Pitching
The Padres entered the season with what looked like an excellent foursome at the front of their rotation. Michael King, Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and the newly-acquired Nick Pivetta looked formidable. After a ridiculous string of bad luck, only Pivetta has met and exceeded expectations.
Darvish and King have missed most of the season and have pitched a combined 137 2/3 innings in 2025. While both are now back, they remain wild cards heading into the postseason. Meanwhile, Cease has been a mess.
The 29-year-old finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting during the 2024 season, but has looked like a different pkate this year. In 32 starts, he’s 8–12 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and 215 strikeouts against 71 walks in 168 innings. Cease has elite stuff, but has struggled to locate it consistently all year, leading to high pitch counts and shorter outings.
San Diego has one of baseball’s best bullpens, but without reliable starting pitching, the team’s postseason run might be over before it begins.
For the first half of the season, the Mets had one of baseball’s most effective starting rotations. On July 31, New York’s starting pitchers had a combined ERA of 3.44, which ranked fifth in MLB. Since the trade deadline, the rotation’s ERA is 5.73, which ranks 27th in baseball.
So what happened?
For much of the season, David Peterson, Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes and Tylor Megill were a solid group atop the team’s rotation. Since the deadline, everything has flipped. Peterson is 2–2 with a 7.74 ERA, Holmes is similarly 2–2 with a 4.25 ERA, and rookie Jonah Tong has limped to a 2–3 record with a 7.71 ERA. Sean Manaea returned to the rotation only to be banished to the bullpen, then returned to the rotation while nursing a 7.34 ERA. Meanwhile, Megill is out for the year thanks to Tommy John surgery. Rookie Nolan McLean has been the only bright spot, sporting a 5–1 record with a sparkling 2.06 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.
Perhaps the most puzzling of all has been Senga. At the All-Star break, he was 7–3 with a 1.39 ERA. Since then, he’s 0–3 with a 6.56 ERA and was sent down to Triple A to work on his control. His struggles persisted. It doesn’t appear he’ll be returning to the rotation for the postseason.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Offensive Depth
The Diamondbacks have to be kicking themselves for selling as hard as they did in late July. Arizona enters the season’s final weekend in the thick of the wild-card hunt, and that’s after shipping several key players out at the deadline. Eugenio Suárez, Josh Naylor, and Merrill Kelly were sent packing, and all could be a big help right now.
The Diamondbacks are 29–20 since the deadline, the sixth-best record in baseball. They have done that largely on the backs of phenomenal seasons from Geraldo Perdomo and Corbin Carroll. Unfortunately, they have a few regulars who are performing well below average. Alek Thomas has posted a wRC+ of 80 since the deadline, while Adrian Del Castillo (97), Jake McCarthy (78), James McCann (78), Ildemaro Vargas (70) and Tyler Locklear (52) have all been pretty bad as well.
With Lourdes Gurriel Jr. out for the year after tearing his right ACL, the team’s lineup is thin behind Carroll, Perdomo and Ketel Marte. Even factoring in a nice season from Gabriel Moreno, it’s likely not enough to sustain a playoff run without the thump from Suárez and Naylor.
Cincinnati Reds: Non-Existent Offense
Yes, this is broad, but there’s no other way to put it. The Reds have struggled mightily on offense since the trade deadline. The lineup ranks 26th in wRC+ (87), 25th in wxOBA (.307), and fWAR (3.0). At least they’re relatively consistent?
Only three players on the roster who have played more than 20 games have a wRC+ over 100. Deadline acquisition Miguel Andújar (162), Will Benson (136), Tyler Stephenson (123) and Spencer Steer (123) are leading the way, but the drop-off is precipitous after them.
Elly De La Cruz, in particular, has been dreadful. Since the deadline, he’s slashing .232/.290/.359 with a wRC+ of 74. He has a remarkable 63 strikeouts in those 49 games, and 177 on the season. Shockingly, the reigning MLB stolen base leader has only seven steals in that time and has been caught twice. The team’s most dynamic weapon has largely been bottled up, which is bad news as the postseason approaches.
