From Mr. Schwab (@schwab_mr):
Schwab, I think we first should look at the results since Ballard hired Reich in 2018, with Ballard having at that point gone through a retooling year in ’17.
• Overall record of 38-30-1
• Playoffs in two of four years
• One playoff win
• One losing season
• Five different starting quarterbacks in five seasons
With this established, it’s incredible to think of how perception changed during Week 18 of last year. Going into that last game of the 2021 season in Jacksonville, the Colts had gotten a pretty good, if uneven, year out of Carson Wentz. They also had the NFL rushing champion and a top-10 scoring defense. That overall record at the time was 37–27, and beating a Jaguars’ team with an interim coach would’ve meant a third playoff berth in four years.
Instead, the Colts lost. Wentz was jettisoned and they traded for Matt Ryan. The embarrassment of that finish lingered over the team’s offseason. And beyond that? Well, I don’t think it’s something that Colts players and coaches are thinking about day to day. But might it have an effect on the team’s confidence when things do go wrong, as they already have this year? Sure, I think that’s plausible.
The other thing to pay attention to is the staff changes in Indianapolis. Because of their success, the Colts have been poached the past couple of offseasons, losing Nick Sirianni to Philadelphia last year, and Matt Eberflus to Chicago this year. They replaced those guys with Marcus Brady and Gus Bradley. They’ve also had a lot of turnover among position coaches, and that much change can certainly have an impact. So it’s worth looking there, too.
Still, taking all of this into account, I’d have to imagine, even with Jim Irsay’s itchy trigger finger, that Ballard and Reich would get another shot if this year goes the wrong way. I think they’ve earned that much in leading the franchise through the shocking retirement of Andrew Luck, and finding a way to head off a lot of the tumult that could’ve followed.
